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Advanced Guide

On-Chain Analysis Guide

14 min read
Advanced Level

Unlock the power of blockchain data to understand market trends and investor behavior. Learn to analyze on-chain metrics for better cryptocurrency investment decisions.

What is On-Chain Analysis?

On-chain analysis involves examining data directly from blockchain networks to understand market dynamics, investor behavior, and network health. Unlike traditional financial markets, blockchain networks provide unprecedented transparency into transaction flows, holder behavior, and network usage patterns.

This analysis can reveal market cycles, identify accumulation and distribution phases, and provide early signals for potential price movements based on actual network activity rather than just price and volume data.

Key On-Chain Metrics

Network Activity Metrics

Active Addresses

Number of unique addresses participating in transactions daily.

Indicates network adoption and usage

Transaction Count

Total number of transactions processed on the network.

Shows network utility and demand

Transaction Volume

Total value transferred on the network in USD.

Measures economic activity

Hash Rate

Computational power securing the network (PoW chains).

Indicates network security and miner confidence

Holder Behavior Metrics

HODL Waves

Distribution of coins by how long they've been held without moving.

1d-1w
Active Trading
1w-1m
Short Term
1m-3m
Medium Term
3m-1y
Long Term
1y+
HODLers

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)

Measures when old coins move. High CDD indicates long-term holders selling.

Exchange Flow Analysis

Tracking cryptocurrency flows to and from exchanges provides insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.

Exchange Inflows

Cryptocurrency moving from wallets to exchanges, often indicating selling pressure.

High inflows = Potential selling
Whale inflows = Major movements

Exchange Reserves

Total amount of cryptocurrency held on exchanges.

Decreasing = Accumulation phase
Increasing = Distribution phase

Exchange Outflows

Cryptocurrency moving from exchanges to wallets, indicating accumulation.

High outflows = Accumulation
Self-custody trend = Bullish

Net Flow

Difference between inflows and outflows.

Positive = Net inflow (bearish)
Negative = Net outflow (bullish)

Valuation Metrics

MVRV Ratio

Market Value to Realized Value ratio compares current market cap to realized cap (price when coins last moved).

MVRV > 3.7
Overvalued
Historical top signals
1 < MVRV < 3.7
Fair Value
Normal range
MVRV < 1
Undervalued
Historical bottom signals

Network Value to Transactions (NVT)

Often called the "P/E ratio of crypto," NVT compares network value to transaction volume.

NVT = Market Cap / Daily Transaction Volume
High NVT = Network may be overvalued relative to utility
Low NVT = Network may be undervalued relative to utility

Realized Price

Average price at which all coins in circulation were last moved, weighted by amount.

Price above realized price = Profit for average holder
Price below realized price = Loss for average holder

Advanced On-Chain Indicators

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

Ratio of realized profit/loss for all coins moved on-chain.

SOPR > 1 = Profits being realized
SOPR < 1 = Losses being realized

Puell Multiple

Daily mining revenue vs 365-day moving average.

High values = Potential market tops
Low values = Potential market bottoms

Stock-to-Flow Model

Ratio of existing supply to new production rate.

Higher S2F = Greater scarcity
Used for long-term valuation

Whale Activity

Tracking large holder (whale) accumulation and distribution.

Whale accumulation = Bullish signal
Whale distribution = Bearish signal

Long-Term Holder Supply

Percentage of supply held by addresses inactive for 155+ days.

Increasing LTH supply = Accumulation
Decreasing LTH supply = Distribution

Funding Rates

Cost of holding leveraged positions in derivatives markets.

High positive = Excessive bullishness
High negative = Excessive bearishness

On-Chain Analysis Tools

Free Tools

  • • Glassnode Studio (limited free tier)
  • • CoinMetrics Community
  • • Blockchain.info
  • • Messari.io
  • • CryptoQuant (basic)

Premium Tools

  • • Glassnode Pro
  • • CryptoQuant Pro
  • • Santiment
  • • IntoTheBlock
  • • Nansen

Complete Your Market Analysis Skills

Combine on-chain analysis with fundamental analysis and market indicators for comprehensive market understanding.